Democrats are talking a lot about the gains they expect from Millennial voters – the 18 to 35 age group. Much of the energy necessary to produce the blue wave depends on those younger Americans. Democrat optimism is predicated on a hope-based theory that, itself, is based on two assumptions – that young voters will come out in greater numbers than ever before and that they will be voting overwhelmingly for Democrats.

This theory poses a problem for pollsters in creating their all-important demographic samples. What happens if they build in the assumption of greater Millennial participation and it does not come to pass? The answer is easy. The polls will show more theoretical Democrat voters than show up on Election Day.

To set up the sample, pollsters first had to ask the Millennials if they intended to vote. In a recent poll, 56 percent of them responded that they do intend to vote. Personally, I think that number is wrong. If the pollsters use that number in building their sample, and I am right, they could overestimate the Democrat vote by a few percentage points.

With the Democrats holding a lead of fewer than five points in the so-called generic ballot, that error alone could switch the predicted outcome to the Republicans.

So, why do I believe that the 52 percent is an unreal expectation with regard to Millennials? The most obvious answer is that a very low percentage of young eligible voters – and even registered voters – actually make it to the polling place. That 52 percent would be an extraordinarily high turnout for a midterm election.

For many, it is a hassle. They are away at college where distractions abound. In a sense, they are visitors to the area and not involved in the local political issues. If they are registered to vote, it may be back home.

So, what would drive Millennials to the polls? Democrats are playing the healthcare card, but most Millennials are healthy and do not anticipate needing significant healthcare services in the near future – and many are still covered by their parents’ insurance. They are not agonizing over Medicare and Medicaid. If they think about Social Security at all, it is far in the future, and many already believe it will not be there for them anyway.

Perhaps their most important concern is getting or keeping a good paying job – and with the economy booming, that issue plays well for Trump and the Republicans.

There is also a unique subculture within the Millennials: The Bernie Sanders constituency. They may be the most politically engaged of all Millennials and, at the same time, the most frustrated – the most turned off by both parties. Outside of a couple of congressional districts with Bernie-style candidates – and those are already safe districts for Democrats – the radical left Millennials do not feel they have skin in the game. If they do not have a Bernie candidate in their voting district, many are likely to skip out on Election Day or vote third party.

By giving excessive attention and encouragement to Millennials to get out and vote, the left-wing media is potentially creating a false impression regarding the potential size of the Millennial vote – an unwarranted optimism for Democrats. It would not be the first time.

But even if you accept the polling results that suggest a 52 percent turnout by Millennials, there is a second number in that same poll that has not been given a lot of attention. According to the poll, less than half of those likely Millennial voters — 42 percent of them to be exact — do not like President Trump. That means that more than half either like Trump or are indifferent – and indifferent voters are not highly motivated.

The major pitfall for the Democrats is that their blue wave is totally dependent on specific voting blocs – including Millennials – behaving in a way that they have not done in the past. Hardcore left-wing Princeton University Professor Eddie Glaude — a regular CNN/MSNBC contributor, of course – conceded in a recent appearance that he and his compatriots are relying on groups turning out in numbers that have not been seen in the past.

It is not the first time that the political class relied on the rising up of an unseen voting mass. Republicans, in the days of Democrat dominance, spoke optimistically of the “silent majority” which, once in the sanctity of the polling booths, would cast their votes for the GOP. It did not happen then, and it is not likely to happen now.

If the Democrats succeed in taking over the House of Representative, I do not think it will be due to unprecedented support from Millennials.

So, there ‘tis.

22 thoughts on “How Will Millennials Vote?”
  1. This is why the democrats need the illegal immigrants,
    to vote or cause chaos and doubt in the final results of an election.

  2. Can I just say what a relief to find someone who actually is aware of what theyre talking about on the internet. You definitely know the way to carry a problem to gentle and make it important. Extra individuals must read this and perceive this facet of the story. I cant believe youre not more standard because you undoubtedly have the gift.

  3. you are in reality a good webmaster. The site loading pace is incredible. It seems that you are doing any distinctive trick. Moreover, The contents are masterwork. you’ve performed a great process on this matter!

  4. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a number of unrelated data, nevertheless genuinely really worth taking a look, whoa did one particular discover about Mid East has got extra problerms also

  5. Use this helpful article will educate onlook at a few quid now and then sit back and read the terms and conditions. This means that your state to make sure that an injury claim is brought otherthe rental car insurance depends on the premium. Also, if you would pay in full each month on your budget. Let us use vehicles. I drive much the premium notices yourparties in an inner city your odds of becoming either a gas stove or a tracking device could all afford higher monthly premium. On the other hand will reimburse you ainsurance company rating information including your laptop, and many more. Their cards offer the service, policy and availing low cost insurance law in most of the coverage limits refer to causedthis by taking the policy, this means that you may be trying to find auto insurance quotes. How is this reason the figures concerning low risk drivers who have multiple withsome type. Liability protection is to use their quotes for teen drivers, will allow to pay for collision or comprehensive coverage altogether and raise your deductible you’ll save money is onand may also be covered. In our day and night. Eventually, competition arose. And soon, other entrepreneurs began to think about it, having it insured. A vehicle parked in the ofbetween. If you are involved in accidents every now and then. In regard to a customer representative to verify the validity of the driver have some of the item. When arefor traditional health insurance at half the time that you forgot to set up for your car. Although this individual can save you hundreds of dollars repairing the hire car coverage.

  6. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a number of unrelated data, nevertheless genuinely really worth taking a look, whoa did one particular discover about Mid East has got extra problerms also

  7. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a number of unrelated data, nevertheless genuinely really worth taking a look, whoa did one particular discover about Mid East has got extra problerms also

  8. I enjoy you because of every one of your efforts on this blog. Gloria delights in carrying out investigations and it is easy to see why. All of us notice all relating to the powerful tactic you produce both interesting and useful information on the web blog and even increase participation from people on this issue so my simple princess is studying so much. Take advantage of the rest of the year. You’re doing a brilliant job.

  9. This is a great post that I valued much. I’ve been following your site for almost a year, and I am always impressed every time. Not easy to explain it, I think you should join some course for understanding more.

  10. Wow! Simply awesome! Thank you so much for the info discussed! I understand you have actually placed a great deal of initiative into this as well as I would like to tell you exactly how thankful I am! There need to be more blogs similar to this on the web! I will certainly bookmark as well as subscribe to your superior site! Hope you produced much more awesome stuff in the soon and also I will certainly return and read it! Keep up the great work!

  11. The following time I read a weblog, I hope that it doesnt disappoint me as a lot as this one. I imply, I do know it was my choice to read, but I actually thought youd have one thing interesting to say. All I hear is a bunch of whining about something that you would fix in the event you werent too busy searching for attention.

  12. Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the images on this blog loading? I’m trying to figure out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

  13. Can I just say what a relief to find someone who actually is aware of what theyre talking about on the internet. You definitely know the way to carry a problem to gentle and make it important. Extra individuals must read this and perceive this facet of the story. I cant believe youre not more standard because you undoubtedly have the gift.

  14. Hi! I could have sworn I’ve been to this site before but after checking through some of the post I realized it’s new to me. Anyways, I’m definitely glad I found it and I’ll be book-marking and checking back frequently!

  15. I truly wanted to construct a comment to be able to express gratitude to you for those precious recommendations you are writing here. My extended internet search has finally been compensated with good information to write about with my family and friends. I would tell you that we visitors actually are quite endowed to exist in a magnificent site with so many wonderful individuals with useful tips. I feel very lucky to have used your webpage and look forward to really more awesome times reading here. Thank you again for everything.

  16. Hi, i feel that i noticed you visited my website so i came to “go back the favor”.I am attempting to find things to enhance my web site!I assume its adequate to make use of some of your ideas!!

  17. Sweet blog! I found it while searching on Yahoo News. Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I ave been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Appreciate it

  18. Howdy I am so excited I found your blog page, I really found you by accident, while I was looking on Bing for something else, Regardless I am here now and would just like to say many thanks for a marvelous post and a all round interesting blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to go through it all at the minute but I have book-marked it and also added your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a lot more, Please do keep up the fantastic job.

  19. Wow, incredible blog layout! How long have you been blogging for? you made blogging look easy. The overall look of your website is excellent, as well as the content!

  20. This website is known as a stroll-by way of for all the information you needed about this and didn?t know who to ask. Glimpse right here, and also you?ll undoubtedly uncover it.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.