(PartiallyPolitics.com) – The November rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will be decided by seven toss-up states — Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — where 93 electoral votes will be up for grabs.
Georgia
In 2020, Biden won Georgia by fewer than 12,000 votes, turning it blue for the first time in decades. However, the 2024 race lacks big down-ballot contests and signs of high turnout that helped Biden win in 2020. Polling averages show Trump leading by 6 points, with The Times’ poll putting him ahead by 10 points.
Arizona
Last election, Biden won Arizona by about a third of a percentage point, marking the first Democratic win in the Republican stronghold since the 1990s. However, Trump is now leading by approximately 6 points in Arizona, with border issues expected to play a vital role in November.
Michigan
In Michigan, a battleground Biden won with nearly 3 points in 2020, protest action by progressives and Arab Americans — who played a crucial role in Biden’s victory last election — in the Democratic primary may squash that lead.
North Carolina
Biden won most swing states in 2020, but Trump secured North Carolina by a margin of roughly 1.5 points, a slightly larger victory than in 2016. Biden’s campaign wants to win back North Carolina for the Democrats, but they have acknowledged that achieving this goal will require a “relentless effort” over the next six months.
Nevada
Trump is yet to win Nevada. In 2020, Biden won with a 2.4-point lead. In 2016, Hillary Clinton also won with a narrow margin. Yet, recent polling by The New York Times suggests Trump leads Biden by 12 points, Biden’s worst showing in any Battleground state.
Wisconsin
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in the Badger State by less than one percentage point. According to recent statistics, Trump now leads Biden by one percentage point, with further polling suggesting Independent candidate Robert F Kennedy could also be detrimental to any lead Biden could have in the 2024 cycle.
The GOP is courting Wisconsin by holding its National Convention there in the summer, with Trump revealing the state’s importance to the GOP in an interview when he declared, “If we win Wisconsin, I think we win the whole thing.”
Pennsylvania
Recent primaries in Pennsylvania showed weaknesses for both Biden and Trump. For the GOP’s presumptive nominee trouble arose when Nikki Haley, who had dropped out of the race almost two months before the GOP primary received over 150,000 votes in the Keystone State.
Biden is facing as much pressure. The “Abandon Biden” movement urged voters to boycott the incumbent due to concerns about the administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
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