What Comes Next for Syria’s Governance and Stability After Capital’s Capture?

Smoke rising from buildings after an explosion
Coalition forces hitting to ISIS target in Kobani discirt in Syria, 22 October 2014, Suruc, Turkey.

In a stunning turn of events, Syrian rebels have captured Damascus, ending the Assad family’s 50-year rule and reshaping the Middle East’s political landscape.

At a Glance

  • Syrian rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have captured key cities including Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, and Homs.
  • The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks the end of a dynasty that began with his father, Hafez, in 1971.
  • This power shift could lead to a dangerous vacuum, potentially resulting in chaos and further violence.
  • Regional dynamics are set to change, with Iran’s influence weakened and Turkey playing a significant role.
  • The international community is closely watching the situation, concerned about stability and future governance.

The Unexpected Fall of Assad

The capture of Damascus by Syrian rebels has sent shockwaves through the region and beyond. Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which seemed unshakeable just a week ago, has crumbled in the face of a swift rebel offensive that began in Idlib. This historic shift marks the end of the Assad family’s iron grip on Syria, a rule that has spanned five decades and weathered numerous challenges.

Assad, who inherited power from his father Hafez in 2000, initially sparked hopes for a more open regime. However, these aspirations were short-lived as he continued his father’s repressive policies. The regime’s violent suppression of protests in 2011 led to a devastating civil war that claimed over half a million lives and displaced millions more.

The Rebel Offensive and Regional Implications

The rebel offensive, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), rapidly captured key cities including Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, effectively isolating Damascus before its fall. This sudden collapse of Assad’s power has significant implications for regional dynamics. Iran’s influence in Syria, a crucial link in its ‘Axis of Resistance,’ has been severely weakened. This development is viewed favorably by Israel, as it potentially reduces the threat posed by Iran and its proxies.

Turkey’s role in this dramatic turn of events cannot be overlooked. While Ankara denies backing HTS, many believe the offensive could not have occurred without Turkey’s tacit approval. Turkey’s involvement is likely motivated by its desire to resolve the Syrian conflict and address the issue of the 3 million Syrian refugees within its borders.

Challenges Ahead and International Concerns

The power vacuum left by Assad’s fall presents significant challenges. There are concerns that this sudden shift could lead to chaos and further violence. The international community is closely watching the situation, aware of the potential for increased influence by rival powers and the spread of conflicts.

“There is strong fear inside and outside the region of the power vacuum that Assad’s sudden collapse may cause,” said Abdelaziz al-Sager, director of the Gulf Research Center.

HTS, the group leading the rebel forces, has a history linked to al-Qaeda and is attempting to rebrand itself as a nationalist force. However, skepticism remains about their true intentions and ability to govern effectively. The international community faces the challenge of ensuring that Syria does not become a breeding ground for extremist ideologies or a battlefield for proxy wars.

As Syria enters this new chapter, the delicate balance of power dynamics both domestically and regionally could ignite friction. Successfully steering Syria toward a stable future will require carefully managing sectarian tensions and fostering collaborative efforts among international stakeholders. The world watches with bated breath as Syria stands at this critical juncture, hoping for a peaceful transition but prepared for potential turbulence.