Vietnam scraps its controversial two-child policy as the communist nation faces a looming demographic crisis fueled by plummeting birth rates and a staggering gender imbalance that threatens its economic future.
Key Takeaways
- Vietnam’s National Assembly has officially abolished its 36-year-old two-child policy to combat fertility rates that have fallen to 1.91 births per woman, below replacement level
- The country has the world’s highest abortion rate, largely due to the restrictive policy, contributing to a severe gender imbalance of 111 boys born for every 100 girls
- Communist Party officials were most strictly regulated under the policy, facing career penalties for having more than two children while enforcement was looser for ordinary citizens
- Vietnam joins other Asian nations like China and Japan in reversing population control measures as they face rapidly aging societies and potential economic contraction
- Despite offering baby bonuses and other incentives, government efforts to increase birth rates have shown limited success across developed Asian economies
From Population Control to Population Crisis
Vietnam’s Communist government has abandoned its two-child policy after nearly four decades as the nation confronts a demographic cliff that threatens its economic future. The policy, initially implemented in 1988 to manage resources in the post-war era, has been officially terminated through amendments passed by Vietnam’s National Assembly in June 2025. The revisions explicitly grant couples the freedom to determine “the timing, number, and spacing of their children” without government interference, marking a complete reversal of the country’s long-standing population control approach that has shaped Vietnamese society for generations.
The demographic indicators forcing this policy change are alarming. Vietnam’s fertility rate has plummeted to just 1.91 births per woman, significantly below the 2.1 replacement level needed to maintain population stability. This decline is most pronounced in urban areas, particularly Ho Chi Minh City, where education, career pressures, and the high cost of living have convinced many young couples to delay or avoid having children altogether. Without intervention, Vietnam faces the prospect of population contraction by mid-century, creating an unsustainable burden on a shrinking workforce to support an expanding elderly population.
Gender Imbalance and Abortion Crisis
Perhaps the most disturbing consequence of Vietnam’s two-child policy has been its impact on gender demographics and abortion rates. With families limited to two children and traditional preferences favoring male offspring, sex-selective abortions became widespread despite being technically illegal. This has resulted in Vietnam having one of the world’s highest abortion rates, with a reported 111 boys now born for every 100 girls in 2024 – a severe imbalance that threatens social stability and marriage prospects for future generations.
“Vietnam is in the period of population aging. The process of population aging is progressing rapidly, caused by mortality and fertility declines, and life expectancy at birth increases and that transition from an ‘aging’ to an ‘aged’ population will occur within just 20 years,” stated The United Nations Population Fund.
The Ministry of Health has proposed increasing penalties for medical professionals who perform sex-determination procedures for non-medical purposes, but enforcement remains weak. The population under 15 years old has already declined to just 23%, indicating the looming demographic challenge is already well underway. Despite the government’s attempts to discourage sex selection through public campaigns and modest fines, cultural preferences remain deeply entrenched, particularly in rural areas where sons are still viewed as essential for continuing family lineages and caring for aging parents.
Following China’s Failed Population Control Model
Vietnam’s policy reversal mirrors China’s 2015 abandonment of its one-child policy, which led to similar demographic challenges on a larger scale. In both countries, communist governments initially implemented strict family planning regulations to manage resources, only to create demographic time bombs that now threaten economic stability. The Vietnamese government’s enforcement was notably selective, with Communist Party officials facing strict career penalties for having more than two children, while ordinary citizens faced limited consequences beyond occasional financial penalties and workplace disadvantages.
“Vietnam has abolished its long-standing two-child policy to tackle concerns about declining birth and fertility rates,” stated by media reports.
Vietnam’s demographic “sweet spot” – with a large working-age population supporting relatively few dependents – is projected to last only until 2039. After that point, the nation will face rapidly increasing elderly care costs with fewer workers to support them. The Vietnamese Ministry of Health has announced plans to propose a comprehensive new population law in 2025 specifically designed to sustain fertility rates and monitor demographic changes. However, demographers remain skeptical that policy changes alone can reverse deeply entrenched social trends that have led couples to prefer smaller families.
Limited Success of Government Incentives
Despite offering generous family benefits, including extended maternity leave and baby bonuses, Vietnam has seen limited results in boosting birth rates. This pattern reflects the experience of other Asian nations like Japan and South Korea, where even more substantial financial incentives have failed to meaningfully increase fertility rates. The fundamental issues of work-life balance, housing costs, education expenses, and changing social values have proven resistant to government intervention across the region, suggesting Vietnam may face an uphill battle in reversing its demographic decline.
The Vietnamese government’s response includes a range of measures beyond eliminating the two-child policy, including subsidized childcare, tax benefits for larger families, and even government-sponsored dating shows to encourage marriage among young adults. However, the economic and social pressures discouraging larger families remain powerful. Urban professionals in particular cite career advancement, educational costs, and housing constraints as major factors limiting family size, regardless of government policy. This highlights the challenge facing all developed economies in maintaining sustainable birth rates in modern society.
